Commercial Insight: Osteoporosis and HRT - Novel Osteoporosis Drugs Counter Generic Threat

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Publication Date: 2004-10-15

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The osteoporosis and HRT market was valued at $8.3 billion in 2003 and is forecast to grow to $17.9 billion by 2014, driven by a number of novel osteoporosis drug launches before 2009. Since the Women's Health Initiative, the HRT market has been in decline and non-hormonal osteoporosis drugs have partially realized the opportunity to increase market share and value, further boosting sector growth.


Scope

  • Epidemiology of female and male osteoporosis in the seven major markets
  • Country specific forecasts based on IMS MIDAS data of key ATC classes A11C2; G3C; G3E; G3F; H4A; H4V; M5B1; M5B2; M5B9
  • Analysis of WHI impact on the osteoporosis and HRT market and portfolio management strategy in hormone therapy
  • Extensive secondary research and utilization of licensed and in-house databases augmented by primary research interviews with key opinion leaders


    • Report Highlights
    The osteoporosis market is forecast to be worth $14.7 billion by 2014. Growth is driven by uplift after the WHI and new product launches to 2009. The market will face its first major genericization when Fosamax loses patent protection. Generics are expected in the UK in 2005, followed by patent expiries in Europe in 2007 and the US in 2008.

    The WHI wiped $850 million off HRT market value in 2003, sending the sector into decline. Wyeth and other players in the market have responded with investment in R&D to expand their portfolios to meet the demand for tailored treatment in the menopausal population.

    Additional indications are critical in maximizing osteoporosis drugs' commercial potential. Lilly's Evista and Pfizer's lasofoxifene are in trials for breast cancer and cardiovascular disease prevention, and Novartis's bisphosphonate Zometa is moving into the osteoporosis market. Such indications could add over $1 billion to brand revenues.


    Reasons to Purchase

  • Predict the impact of key growth drivers on the market, such as intermittent dosing and multiple indications
  • Review leading drug class and identify key success factors within this sector
  • Quantify the impact of key patent expiries using the forecasting model

    • Table of Contents

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