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The World Diabetes Market, 2006-2025

Diabetes affects approximately 246 million people worldwide and this number is increasing. The IDF predict 380 million diabetics by 2025. The Global Diabetes drug treatment market was valued at over $21 billion in 2006 and the market is still expanding rapidly due to the high prevalence of diabetes and lifestyle changes.

Do you know what the prevalence of diabetes will be in 2007 to 2025? Will the oral anti-diabetics drugs and insulins still dominate the diabetes market until 2012? Which regions will be the main sales generator contributing sales into diabetes market? In addition, do you know what the drivers and restraints of the market are? This report explains just how this market will experience growth over the medium term future. This report not only reveals this, but also examines the key player’s strategies used to maximize profits and R&D as well as the relevant studies and trials. The new technologies for anti-diabetic treatment will also be illustrated in this report.

Analysis in the report looks at the 7 major markets, aswell as the leading 7 expanding markets:
7 Major markets

• US
• Japan
• France
• Germany
• Italy
• Spain
• UK

E7 (expanding markets)

• China
• India
• Indonesia
• Turkey
• Mexico
• Brazil
• Russia

In the year 2000, the global retail sales of diabetes drugs was US$8.1 billion - the market has tripled in 6 years.  In 2000 it was predicted by the authors of this report that the retail market for diabetes medications would exceed US$20 billion annually by 2006. These figures turned out to be correct.  The same authors now forecast the shape and direction of the market in 2012 and 2025.

This report is arranged to provide you with in-depth analysis of the diabetes drug market accompanied by forecasts by product type, country and application. Information on the leading diabetes drugs for the treatment of type 1 and 2 diabetes as well as a brief look at the drugs for treating the complications associated with diabetes will be presented in this report.

Forecasts of the market and an analysis of products in the worldwide prescriptions market will provide a basis for understanding the significance of past developments and future possibilities within this therapeutic category. The main areas of pharmaceutical developments within the diabetes market are delivery technologies for treatment of type 1 diabetes and drugs for the treatment of type 2 diabetes.

Market figures regarding the current value of the diabetes drug market is taken from the most recently available data of the global pharmaceutical industry.

Key Market for the Future

In this report the treatments of diabetes will be examined in terms of the classification of drugs, the current markets and sales forecasts for leading drugs as well as new block busters.

According to the findings of this new 164+ page report, it is revealed that oral anti-diabetic therapies are set to dominate the market over the forecast period (2007-2012); insulin therapies will also expand rapidly. The report predicts that the diabetes market will continue to show significant growth for what is an already large market. New blockbusters: Januvia, Galvus, Byetta and Levemir will bring significant sales into diabetes market.

Actos and Lantus are existing leading products for oral anti-diabetic drugs and insulin. However, are there any others which can compete with this for market share or beat its dominance? This report answers that question with an analysis of other players in the market.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1. Executive Summary

1.1 The Diabetes Market has High Potential

1.2 Aims, Scope and Format of the Report

1.3 Research Methodology

Chapter 2. Introduction to Diabetes

2.1 Introduction of Diabetes

2.1.1 Type 1 Diabetes Description

2.1.1.1 Causation of Type 1 Diabetes

2.1.1.1.1 Auto-Immune Response

2.1.1.1.2 Genetic Abnormalities

2.1.1.1.3 Viral Infections

2.1.1.1.4 Cow's Milk

2.1.1.2 Symptoms of Type 1 Diabetes

2.1.1.2.1 Hypoglycemia

2.1.1.2.2 Ketoacidosis

2.1.2 Type 2 Diabetes Description

2.1.2.1 Causes of Type 2 Diabetes

2.1.2.1.1 Insulin Resistance

2.1.2.1.2 Genetic Factors

2.1.2.2 Symptoms of Type 2 Diabetes

2.1.2.3 Gestational Diabetes

2.1.2.4 Maturity-Onset Diabetes in Youth

2.1.2.5 Secondary Diabetes

2.1.2.6 Pre-Diabetes

2.2 Prevalence of Diabetes

2.2.1. Diabetes Prevalence in the Seven Major Markets

2.2.2 Diabetes Prevalence in Other Countries

2.2.3 Mortality

2.2.4 Diabetes Causes High Medication Expenditure

2.3 Diabetes Risk Factors

2.3.1 Type 1 Diabetes risk Factors

2.3.2 Type 2 Diabetes Risk Factors

2.3.2.1 Obesity and Physical Inactivity

2.3.2.2 Aged of 40 Years or Older

2.3.2.3 Family History of Diabetes

2.3.2.4 Diabetes During Pregnancy

2.3.2.5 Ethnicity

2.3.2.6 Low Birth Weight

2.3.2.7 Hypertension

2.3.3 Metabolic Syndrome and its Relationship to Diabetes

2.4 Diagnosing Diabetes

2.4.1 Diagnostic Guidelines

2.4.2 Diabetes Tests

2.4.2.1 FPG (Fasting Plasma Glucose) Test

2.4.2.2 OGTT (Oral Glucose Tolerance Test)

2.4.2.3 Test for Glycosylated Haemoglobin

2.4.2.4 Fructosamine

2.4.2.5 Other Cautions for Diabetes Tests

2.5 Health Consequence of Diabetes

2.5.1 Cardiovascular Disease

2.5.2 Blindness

2.5.3 Nervous System Disease and Amputations

2.4.4 Dental Disease

2.5.6 Complications in Pregnancy

Chapter 3. The Treatments for Diabetes

3.1 Introduction of Diabetes Treatments

3.1.1 Introduction for Type 1 Diabetes Treatment

3.1.2 Introduction for Type 2 Diabetes Treatments

3.2 Insulin Classification

3.3 Human Insulin

3.3.1 Rapid-Acting Insulin

3.3.2 Short-Acting Insulin

3.3.3 Intermediate-Acting Insulin

3.3.4 Long-Acting Insulin

3.3.5 Ultra-Long-Acting Insulin

3.3.6 Insulin Mixture

3.4 Animal Insulin

3.5 Oral anti-diabetes Drug (OADs) classification

3.5.1 Alpha-Glucosidase Inhibitors (AGIs)

3.5.2 Biguanides

3.5.3 DDP-IV Inhibitors

3.5.4 Meglitinides (Prandial Glucose Regulators: PGRs)

3.5.5 Sulphonylureas

3.5.6 Thiazolidiniones (TZDs)

3.6 Others Drugs

3.6.1 Incretin Mimetic (GLP-1 agonist)

3.7 The Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes by Lifestyle Changes

3.7.1 Diet and Weight Loss

3.7.2 Exercise

3.7.3 Monitoring blood glucose

3.7.4 Daily Foot Care

Chapter 4. Global Diabetic Market Analysis

4.1 Overview of Diabetes Market by Drug Class

4.2 Current OAD Market Analysis

4.2.1 Top OADs Analysis and Forecast

4.2.1.1 Actos

4.2.1.2 Avandia

4.3 Current Insulin Market

4.3.1 Leading Insulins Analysis and Forecast

4.3.1.1 Lantus Preforms Strongly in Insulin Market

4.3.1.2 Humalog

4.3.1.3 NovoRapid/NovoLog (insulin aspart)

4.3.1.4 NovoMixChapter

Chapter 5. Diabetes Market Analysis by Countries

5.1 Overview of Global Market by Region

5.2 Diabetes Market Analysis in Seven Major Countries

5.2.1 Diabetes Market Trends 2003 to 2006

5.2.2 OAD Market Analysis

5.2.3 OADs Sales Analysis and Sales Forecast in the Seven Major Markets

5.2.3.1 Sales Analysis

5.2.3.2 Sales Forecast for OADs Market

5.2.4 Human Insulin Market Analysis in Seven Major Markets

5.2.4.1 Current Insulin Market Analysis

5.2.4.2 Sales Forecast for Insulin in the Seven Major Markets

5.2.4.3 Conclusion

5.3 E7 Diabetes Market Analysis

5.3.1 Current Market Analysis

5.3.2 Analysis for the Four Leading Oral Antidiabetic Drugs in E7

5.3.3 Sales Forecast in OADs Market in E7

5.3.4 E7 Human Insulin Market Analysis

5.3.5 Sales Forecast of E7 Insulin Market

5.3.6 Conclusion

Chapter 6. Unmet Medical Needs for Diabetes Treatment and R&D

6.1 Unmet Medical Needs for Diabetes Treatments

6.2 New Development of Anti-Diabetic Drugs

6.2.1 GLP-1 (Glucagon-Like Peptide-1) Inhibitors

6.2.2 Future DDP-IV Iinhibitors

6.2.3 SGLT (Sodium Glucose Co-Transporter Inhibitor)

6.2.4 Glucokinase Activators

6.2.5 Gluconeogesis Inhibitors

6.2.6 PPAR ( Peroxisom Proliferators-Activated Receptors) Agonists

6.3 Insulin Delivery Technologies

6.3.1 Insulin Jet Injections

6.3.2 Insulin Pens

6.3.3 Injection Aids

6.3.4 Insulin Jet Injectors

6.3.5 External Insulin Pumps

6.4 Introduction of New Delivery Technology

6.4.1 Implantable Insulin Pumps

6.4.2 Insulin Pills

6.4.3 Transdermal Insulin

6.4.4 Oral spray insulin

6.4.5 Inhaled Insulin

6.4.6 Insulin Patches

6.5 Other New Technologies for Type 1 Diabetes

6.5.1 Organ transplantation

6.5.2 Stem cell Technology

6.6 Blockbuster Anti-Diabetic Drugs

6.6.1 Januvia (Sitagliptin)

6.6.2 Galvus (Vildagliptin)

6.6.3 Levemir (Insulin)

6.6.4 Byetta (Exenatide)

Chapter 7. Key Players in the Global Diabetes Market

7.1 Eli Lilly

7.1.1 Marked Diabetes Product Portfolio

7.1.1.1 Actos (Pioglitazone)

7.1.1.2 Byetta (Exenatide)

7.1.1.3 Humalog (Insulin Lispro [rDNA Origin])

7.1.1.4 Humalog Mix 75/25 & 50/50

7.1.1.5 Humulin (Human Insulin [rDNA Original])

7.1.2 R&D Pipeline Analysis

7.1.2.1 Arxxant (Ruboxistaurin)

7.1.2.2 AIR Insulin

7.1.3 Strategic Analysis

7.2 GlaxoSmithKline

7.2.1 Marketed Diabetes Product Portfolio

7.2.1.1 Avandia (Rosiglitazone)

7.2.1.2 Avandamet (Metformin/Rosiglitazone)

7.2.1.3 Avandaryl (Rosiglitazone/ Glimepiride)

7.2.2 R&D pipeline analysis

7.2.3 Strategic Analysis

7.3 Novo Nordisk

7.3.1 Marketed Diabetes Product Portfolio

7.3.1.1 Actraphane HM (Human Mixtard/Novolin Mixtard/Actraphane)

7.3.1.2 NovoMix (Insulin Aspart)

7.3.1.3 NovoRapid/ NovoLog (Human Insulin Aspart)

7.3.1.4 Levemir (Insulin Detemir)

7.3.1.5 INS. Protaphane HM (Human Insulin)

7.3.1.6 INS. Actrapid HM (Human Insulin)

7.3.1.7 Novonorm/Prandlin (Repaglinide)

7.3.2 R&D Pipeline Analysis

7.3.2.1 Liraglutide (NN2211)

7.3.2.2 AERx iDMS (NN1998)

7.3.2.3 NovoNorm/Metformin Fixed Combo

7.3.2.4 E1-INT

7.3.2.5 GLP1-INT

7.3.2.6 NN9101

7.3.3 Strategic Analysis

7.4 Sanofi-Aventis

7.4.1 Marked Diabetes Product Portfolio

7.4.1.1 Apidra (Insulin Glulisine)

7.4.1.2 Lantus (Insulin Glargine)

7.4.1.3 Amaryl (Glimepiride)

7.4.1.4 Daonil (Glibenclamide)& Diastabol (Miglitol)

7.4.2 R&D Pipeline Analysis

7.4.2.1 AVE0010

7.4.2.2 AVE2268

7.4.2.3 AVE0847

7.4.2.4 AVE8134

7.4.2.5 Others

7.4.3 Strategic Analysis

7.5 Takeda

7.5.1 Marketed diabetes product portfolio

7.5.1.1 Actos (Pioglitazone Hydrochloride)

7.5.1.2 Basen (Voglibose)

7.5.2 R&D Pipeline Analysis

7.5.2.1 Alogliptin (SYR-322)&AD-4833-536

7.5.2.2 Others

7.5.3 Strategic Analysis

7.6 Other Players in Diabetes Market

7.6.1 Bayer

7.6.2 Bistol-Mayers Squibb

7.6.3 Pfizer

7.6.3.1 Exubera(human insulin)

7.6.3.2 R&D

7.6.3.3 Strategies Analysis

7.6.4 Merck KGaA

7.6.5 Norvatis

7.6.6 Servier

Chapter 8. SWOT Analysis for Global Diabetes Markets

8.1 Unmet Market Needs

8.2 SWOT Analysis

8.2.1 Strengths

8.2.2 Weaknesses

8.2.3 Opportunities

8.2.4 Threats

8.3 Key Drivers of Growth

8.4 Main Restraints of Growth

Chapter 9. Conclusion

9.1 Diabetes is a Severe Condition with High Prevalence

9.2 Existing Diabetes Treatment and the Promising New Drugs Delivery Technologies

9.2.1 Existing Diabetes Treatment

9.2.2 The Promising New Drugs Delivery Technologies

9.3 The Optimistic Future for Diabetes Market from 2007 to 2012

9.3.1 Overview of diabetes drugs

9.3.1.1 OADs

9.3.1.2 Insulins

9.3.2 Regional Breakdown of Revenues in the Anti-Diabetic Market

9.3.2.1 Major Seven Countries Will Have Substantial Growth

9.3.2.2 E7 Increase Rapidly on Antidiabetics Treatments

9.4 New Blockbusters Bring New Ways for Diabetes Treatments

9.5 The Key Drivers and Main Restraints for Diabetes Market

9.6 Outlook for the Future

List of Tables

Table 2.1 Prevalence of Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes in the 7 major markets, 2004-2005

Table 2.2 Top Ten Countries for Highest Estimated Cases of Diabetes, 2000 and 2030

Table 2.3 World Mortality Caused by Diabetes, 2002, 2004 and 2006

Table 2.4 Leading Causes of Death in the US 2004

Table 2.5 World Estimates of the Costs of Diabetes Care in 2003 ($M)

Table 2.6 Diabetes Expenditure in the Seven Major Countries ($M)

Table 2.7 Diabetes Expenditure in E7 ($M)

Table 2.8 Obese Population in Major Countries by Percentage (%)

Table 3.1 Types of Human Insulin on the Market 2007

Table 3.2 Oral Anti-diabetic Drugs 2007

Table 4.1 World Antidiabetic Drugs Sales ($M) 2003-2006

Table 4.2 Top Ten Antidiabetic Drugs Sales Performance ($M) 2003-2006

Table 4.3 World Top OADs Sales Performance ($M) 2003-2006

Table 5.1 World Diabetes Market by Countries 2003- 2006

Table 5.2 Sales Forecast for OADS in Seven Major Markets ($M)

Table 5.3 Insulin Sales Forecast in the Seven Major Countries ($M)

Table 5.4 OADs Sales Trends by E7s ($M) 2006

Table 5.5 OADs Distribution in E7s 2006

Table 5.6 OADs Sales Performance in E7 ($M)

Table 5.7 E7 OADS Sales Forecast ($M)

Table 5.8 Insulin Distribution in E7s 2006

Table 5.9 E7 Insulin Sales Performance ($M)

Table 5.10 E7 Insulin Sales Forecast ($M)

Table 5.11 Comparison of OADs and Insulin Sales in E7

Table 6.1 Overview of GLP-1 Agonists in Development 2007

Table 6.2 Overview of DDP-IV Inhibitors in Development

Table 6.3 Overview of PPARz in Development

Table 7.1 Eli Lilly Pipeline Development 2007

Table 7.2 GSK Pipeline Developments 2007

Table 7.3 Novo Nordisk Pipeline Developments 2007

Table 7.4 Sanofi-Aventis Pipeline Developments

Table 7.5 Takeda Pipeline Developments 2007

Table 7.6 Pfizer Pipeline Developments 2007

Table 8.1 SWOT Analysis for Diabetes Market

Table 9.1 Diabetes Markets in Major Seven Markets and E7s ($M)

List of Charts

Chart 2.1 US Diabetes Prevalence by Age 2005

Chart 4.1 World Diabetes Market 2006

Chart 4.2 Market Trends for Antidiabetic Drugs 2006

Chart 4.3 World Top OADs Sales 2006

Chart 4.4 World Market Trends of Top OADs 2006

Chart 4.5 World Actos Sales 2006

Chart 4.6 Sales Forecast of Actos ($M)

Chart 4.7 World Avandia Sales 2006

Chart 4.8 Sales Forecast for Avandia ($M)

Chart 4.9 World Insulin Sales 2006

Chart 4.10 Top Insulin Market Trends 2006

Chart 4.11 Lantus World Sales 2006

Chart 4.12 Sales Forecast of Lantus ($M)

Chart 4.13 World Humalog Sales 2006

Chart 4.14 Sales Forecast of Humalog ($M)

Chart 4.15 World NovoRapid Sales 2006

Chart 4.16 Sales Forecast of NovoRapid

Chart 4.17 World NovoMix Sales 2006

Chart 4.18 Sales Forecast of NovoMix ($M)

Chart 5.1 Global Diabetes Market by Economic Geography 2006

Chart 5.2 Diabetes Market Share in Seven Major Countries 2006

Chart 5.3 OADs and Insulins Sales Performance in Seven Major Countries ($M) 2006

Chart 5.4 OADs Market Share in Seven Major Countries 2006

Chart 5.5 Top OADs Sales in Seven Major Markets ($M) 2006

Chart 5.6 Top OADs Market Share in Seven Major Countries 2006

Chart 5.7 OADs Sales Distribution in Seven Major Markets 2006

Chart 5.8 Human Insulin Market in the Seven Major Countries 2006

Chart 5.9 Insulin Sales Performance by Seven Major Markets ($M) 2006

Chart 5.10 Top Insulin Market Share in the Seven Major Markets 2006

Chart 5.11 Insulins Market Distribution by Seven Major Markets 2006 ($M)

Chart 5.12 The Market Trends of OADs and Insulin in the E7 2006

Chart 5.13 E7 OADs Market Share 2006

Chart 5.14 E7s Leading OADs Performance by Sales Distribution 2006

Chart 5.15 Leading OADs Sales Performance by E7s ($M) 2006

Chart 5.16 E7s Insilin Market Share 2006

Chart 5.17 E7 Insulin Sales Performance ($M)

Chart 5.18 E7 Insulin Distribution 2006

Chart 6.1 Sales Forecast of Januvia ($M)

Chart 6.2 Sales Forecast of Galvus ($M)

Chart 6.3 Levemir World Sales 2006

Chart 6.4 Sales Forecast of Levemir ($M)

Chart 6.5 Sales Forecast of Byetta ($M)

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