Tropical and Defense Vaccines - The Scared, the Weak and the Poor
Scope
Report Highlights
Reasons to Purchase
Table of Contents
- ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE - page 2
- About the Infectious Disease pharmaceutical analysis team - page 2
- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - page 8
- Scope and coverage of the Brief - page 8
- Key findings about niche vaccines - page 8
- The five major mosquito-borne tropical diseases exert devastating effects on global health where diseases such as malaria and dengue are endemic in 100 countries covering 2-3 billion people. Increased incidence and geographical spread coupled with elevated international travel, urbanization and the threat of bio-terrorism demands for increased levels of preventative action; - page 9
- In developing countries poor healthcare infrastructure generally prevents supportive treatment and distribution of older vaccines. Pathogen resistance can also impact the usefulness of drug therapies especially antimalarials. In all regions, the elderly, young children and immunocompromised are disproportionately affected by tropical diseases and receive the least benefit from the few preventative measures available - page 10
- For existing JE, YF and smallpox vaccines higher target coverage in 'at-risk' and traveler groups calls for development of safer, more applicable products. In addition, the recent US BioShield Act clearly demonstrates that backing of a powerful sponsor can introduce much-needed political will that is ideally extended to vaccines for malaria and dengue. Bearing in mind existing revenues, smallpox stockpiling and maintenance and newer vaccines, Datamonitor estimates this segment can provide an additional $2.6-2.9 billion over the next 7-10 years - page 12
- KEY METRICS - page 15
- SMALLPOX - page 17
- Disease definition - page 17
- Etiology and transmission - page 17
- Disease progression and clinical manifestations - page 17
- Epidemiological overview - page 19
- Although smallpox as a disease has been eradicated, fears of an outbreak persist - page 19
- The threat of bioterrorism has led the US Government to build an extensive smallpox vaccine stockpile - page 20
- Although smallpox as a disease has been eradicated, fears of an outbreak persist - page 19
- Current market overview - page 21
- Smallpox can be prevented but not treated - page 21
- Investigational smallpox therapies focus on the disease itself or the adverse events associated with vaccination - page 21
- Safety issues associated wity smallpox vacciantion have prompted the development of a safer vaccine - page 21
- Traditional, 'live' smallpox vaccines are associated with a significant risk of adverse events, in particular in the immunocompromised - page 23
- Second- and third-generation smallpox vaccines - page 24
- Smallpox can be prevented but not treated - page 21
- Future market outlook - page 26
- Global market visibility for smallpox vaccines - page 26
- The US is the only market offering clear visibility for stockpiling of a smallpox vaccine with its RFP programs - page 27
- The smallpox vaccine market potential outside the US is uncertain - page 27
- The WHO proposes a 'virtual' stockpile - page 27
- Global market visibility for smallpox vaccines - page 26
- Disease definition - page 17
- WEST NILE VIRUS - page 29
- Disease definition - page 29
- Etiology and transmission - page 29
- Disease progression and clinical manifestations - page 29
- Advanced age is the main risk factor for severe WN disease - page 30
- Epidemiological overview - page 30
- The West Nile virus has spread from the Eastern to the Western Hemisphere - page 30
- Current market overview - page 33
- Neither prophylaxis nor therapy is currently available - page 33
- Estimation of the economic impact of WNV - page 34
- Future market outlook - page 35
- Market potential for a prophylactic WNV vaccine - page 35
- Three candidate vaccines are undergoing Phase I trials - page 35
- The at-risk population constitutes a significant WNV vaccine market - page 37
- Market potential for a prophylactic WNV vaccine - page 35
- Disease definition - page 29
- JAPANESE ENCEPHALITIS - page 40
- Disease definition - page 40
- Etiology and transmission - page 40
- Disease progression and clinical manifestations - page 40
- Epidemiological overview - page 41
- The incidence of Japanese encephalitis is highly heterogeneous - page 41
- JE predominantly affects Asia - page 41
- JE is a rare event in the West - page 43
- Age, location and duration of stay in an endemic area determines the relative risk of JE infection - page 44
- The incidence of Japanese encephalitis is highly heterogeneous - page 41
- Current market overview - page 44
- Prevention of disease progression is through effective vaccination - page 44
- In the absence of specific therapies... - page 44
- ...vaccination is the most effective way of preventing severe JE - page 45
- Prevention of disease progression is through effective vaccination - page 44
- Future market outlook - page 47
- JE vaccine market growth in the US and Europe is fuelled by travelers and new vaccine launches - page 47
- The launch of Acambis's Chimerivax-JE is expected to have a significant impact on the US & European JE vaccines market - page 48
- JE vaccine market growth in the US and Europe is fuelled by travelers and new vaccine launches - page 47
- Disease definition - page 40
- YELLOW FEVER - page 49
- Disease definition - page 49
- Etiology and transmission - page 49
- Disease progression and clinical manifestations - page 49
- Epidemiological overview - page 50
- The extent of the yellow fever epidemic is largely underestimated - page 50
- Current market overview - page 52
- Prevention can be achieved through effective vaccination - page 52
- Contraindications for YF vaccination - page 53
- YF vaccination target groups - page 54
- Prevention can be achieved through effective vaccination - page 52
- Future market outlook - page 55
- Disease definition - page 49
- DENGUE - page 56
- Disease definition - page 56
- Etiology and transmission - page 56
- Disease progression and clinical manifestations - page 56
- Risk groups and factors - page 57
- Epidemiological overview - page 58
- The dengue epidemic is expanding on a global scale - page 58
- An epidemic in the US is now possible - page 60
- The dengue epidemic is expanding on a global scale - page 58
- Current market overview - page 61
- Neither prophylaxis nor therapy is currently available - page 61
- Tetravalent vaccines protecting against all four dengue strains are undergoing development - page 61
- Neither prophylaxis nor therapy is currently available - page 61
- Future market outlook - page 62
- Disease definition - page 56
- MALARIA - page 64
- Disease definition - page 64
- Etiology and transmission - page 64
- Disease progression and clinical manifestations - page 65
- Epidemiological overview - page 66
- Malaria is a leading cause of death, especially among young children - page 66
- Childern under the age of five are the most important risk group - page 68
- Malaria is a leading cause of death, especially among young children - page 66
- Current market overview - page 69
- Despite the availability of curative therapy, vaccination is essential to contain the infection - page 69
- Resistance development limits the efficacy of existing antimalarial drugs - page 69
- Despite the challenges associated with the development of a malaria vaccine, several vaccine candidates are being developed - page 70
- Despite the availability of curative therapy, vaccination is essential to contain the infection - page 69
- Future market outlook - page 71
- Disease definition - page 64
- CASE STUDIES - page 74
- Lyme disease - page 74
- Disease overview - page 74
- Epidemiology - page 76
- Treatment and prevention - page 78
- Lymerix - lack of demand leads to vaccine withdrawal - page 79
- Issues abound from the beginning - page 79
- Safety fears cloud uptake and sales tail off after two years - page 81
- Rotavirus - page 83
- Disease overview - page 83
- Epidemiology - page 84
- Treatment - page 86
- Rotavirus vaccination - inauspicious beginnings but now a success? - page 86
- Three vaccines - enough potential? - page 89
- Lyme disease - page 74
- APPENDIX A - page 92
- Sales channels and limitations of IMS data - page 92
- APPENDIX B - page 96
- References - page 96
- Bibliography - page 96
- Journal articles - page 96
- Press releases - page 97
- Miscellaneous - page 97
- Disclaimer - page 99
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Estimated market potential for niche vaccines - page 15
- Table 2: Covered diseases: epidemiological facts - page 16
- Table 3: Smallpox disease progression - page 18
- Table 4: Smallpox was officially declared eradicated in 1980 - page 19
- Table 5: Smallpox vaccination was officially stopped in 1986 - page 20
- Table 6: Risks associated with current smallpox vaccinations - page 23
- Table 7: Key developmental smallpox vaccines based on attenuated viral strains - page 25
- Table 8: Incidence of cases of severe disease and deaths associated with West Nile virus infection in the US, 1999-2004 - page 33
- Table 9: The West Nile virus vaccine pipeline consists of three candidates in Phase I - page 36
- Table 10: US population over the age of 50 years, 2005 - page 38
- Table 11: Estimated market potential for the US West Nile fever market - page 39
- Table 12: Deaths caused by Japanese encephalitis in WHO member states, 1998-2002 - page 42
- Table 13: Countries with past or present Japanese encephalitis epidemics - page 43
- Table 14: Japanese encephalitis JE-VAX vaccine: key facts - page 45
- Table 15: Yellow fever epidemiology: key facts - page 52
- Table 16: Clinical manifestations associated with dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) - page 57
- Table 17: Deaths caused by dengue fever in WHO member states, 1998-2002 - page 59
- Table 18: Epidemiological comparison between Japanese encephalitis and dengue - page 62
- Table 19: The four malaria parasites differ in both geographical distribution and clinically - page 64
- Table 20: Deaths caused by malaria in WHO member states, 1998-2002 - page 67
- Table 21: Deaths caused by three of the most deadly infectious and parasitic diseases, 2002 - page 68
- Table 22: Marketed antimalarial drugs - page 69
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Geographic distribution of the Japanese encephalitis serocomplex of the family Flaviviridae, 2000, Eastern Hemisphere - page 31
- Figure 2: West Nile virus activity in the US, 2004 - page 32
- Figure 3: Global distribution of Japanese encephalitis, 2003 - page 41
- Figure 4: Deaths caused by Japanese encephalitis infection by geographical area, 2003 - page 42
- Figure 5: Estimated US & EU travelers JE vaccine market size, 2005 - page 48
- Figure 6: Yellow fever disease progression - page 50
- Figure 7: Global distribution of yellow fever - page 51
- Figure 8: Global distribution of dengue fever, 2000 - page 58
- Figure 9: Deaths caused by dengue virus infection by geographical area, 2003 - page 59
- Figure 10: Global distribution of malaria - page 66
- Figure 11: Deaths caused by malaria by geographical area, 2003 - page 67
- Figure 12: Distribution of Ixodes ticks that transmit Lyme disease in the US - page 75
- Figure 13: Lyme disease cases reported to the CDC by State Health Departments in the US, 1990-2002 - page 77
- Figure 14: Average annual incidence of reported cases of Lyme disease, by age group and sex, in the US, 1992-1998 - page 78
- Figure 15: Lymerix sales*, 1998-2003 - page 81
- Figure 16: Global distribution of rotavirus strains - page 83
- Figure 17: Global distribution of rotavirus mortality - page 85
- Figure 18: Average time of peak rotavirus activity in the contiguous 48 states, US, July 1991 to June 1997 - page 86
- Figure 19: Rotashield sales*, 1998-99 - page 88
- Figure 20: Comparison of the three rotavirus vaccines - page 90
- Figure 21: Simplified schematic demonstrating vaccine supply channels to patients - page 94
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