The Pharmaceutical Company Outlook to 2011: Financial and Strategic Analysis of the Sales Outlook for Big Pharma, Mid Pharma, Japan Pharma and Biotech
Scope
Report Highlights
Reasons to Purchase
Table of Contents
- CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - page 3
- Key findings - page 3
- Introduction to the PharmaVitae Company Universe - page 5
- Summary of analysis - page 9
- PharmaVitae universe overview - page 11
- Big Pharma overview - page 12
- Mid Pharma overview - page 14
- Biotech overview - page 16
- Japan Pharma overview - page 18
- The PharmaVitae universe will grow at a very modest 2005-11 CAGR of 4.9% - page 20
- Indication broadening in oncology and AIID provides a major opportunity for driving growth and biologics are currently insulated against generic competition - page 21
- Japan, Big and Mid Pharma are all entrenched in slow-growing disease markets - page 26
- Biotech is the most biologics-focused peer set although Big Pharma player Roche has accessed this valuable product set via the acquisition of Genentech - page 28
- Indication broadening boosts sales growth from core marketed products whereas generic competition drives down sales of expired products - page 30
- The financial benefit of Big Pharma scale - increased operating profit margins - page 32
- Strategic options for Big Pharma and consequences for the other peer sets - page 33
- (1) Achieve operating cost efficiencies - page 34
- (2) M&A with another Big Pharma - more mega-mergers? - page 35
- (3) M&A with biotech - access oncology/AIID biologics - page 35
- (4) M&A with Mid Pharma - access promising CNS products - page 36
- (5) M&A with generics companies - page 36
- (6) M&A outside of pharma space - page 36
- Consequences for other peer sets - page 36
- The rest of this report - page 37
- CHAPTER 2 BIG PHARMA - page 52
- Key findings - page 52
- Big Pharma members - page 54
- Big Pharma members - page 54
- Big Pharma overview - page 55
- Big Pharma sales outlook - page 56
- Company sales performance, 2005-11 - page 58
- Big Pharma sales performance, 2005-11 - page 60
- Company growth rates, 2005-11 - page 61
- Company change in annual sales, 2005-11 - page 62
- Big Pharma launch/expiry analysis - page 64
- Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 70
- Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 72
- Big Pharma contribution from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 76
- Big Pharma therapeutic area analysis - page 78
- Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 - page 81
- Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 - page 82
- Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 - page 83
- Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2005 - page 87
- Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2011 - page 90
- Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products, 2005 - page 92
- Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products, 2011 - page 94
- Big Pharma molecule type analysis - page 96
- Big Pharma molecule type launch/core/expiry analysis - page 97
- Company by biologics dependency, 2005 - page 99
- Company by biologics dependency, 2011 - page 100
- Big Pharma growth rate by molecule type - page 102
- Big Pharma financial performance analysis - page 104
- Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues - page 104
- Company total revenues, 2002-06e - page 105
- Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e - page 107
- Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e - page 109
- Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e - page 110
- Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002-06e - page 112
- Key findings - page 52
- CHAPTER 3 MID PHARMA - page 115
- Key findings - page 115
- Mid Pharma overview - page 117
- Mid Pharma members - page 117
- Mid Pharma overview - page 118
- Mid Pharma sales outlook - page 120
- Company sales performance, 2005-11 - page 120
- Mid Pharma sales performance, 2005-11 - page 121
- Company growth rates, 2005-11 - page 122
- Company change in annual sales, 2005-11 - page 123
- Mid Pharma launch/expiry analysis - page 124
- Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 124
- Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 127
- Mid Pharma contribution from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 130
- Mid Pharma therapeutic area analysis - page 131
- Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 - page 131
- Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 - page 133
- Mid Pharma molecule type analysis - page 134
- Company by biologics dependency, 2005 - page 134
- Company by biologics dependency, 2011 - page 135
- Mid Pharma financial performance analysis - page 136
- Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues - page 136
- Company total revenues, 2002-06e - page 138
- Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e - page 139
- Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e - page 141
- Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e - page 142
- Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002-06e - page 143
- CHAPTER 4 BIOTECH - page 146
- Key findings - page 146
- Biotech overview - page 148
- Biotech members - page 148
- Biotech overview - page 149
- Biotech sales outlook - page 150
- Company sales performance, 2005-11 - page 150
- Biotech sales performance, 2005-11 - page 151
- Company growth rates, 2005-11 - page 152
- Company change in annual sales, 2005-11 - page 154
- Biotech launch/expiry analysis - page 156
- Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 156
- Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 158
- Biotech contribution from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 161
- Biotech therapeutic area analysis - page 162
- Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 - page 162
- Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 - page 163
- Biotech molecule type analysis - page 164
- Company by biologics dependency, 2005 - page 164
- Company by biologics dependency, 2011 - page 165
- Biotech financial performance analysis - page 166
- Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues - page 166
- Company total revenues, 2002-06e - page 167
- Company operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e - page 168
- EBIT margin analysis, 2002-06e - page 170
- CHAPTER 5 JAPAN PHARMA - page 171
- Key findings - page 171
- Japan Pharma overview - page 172
- Japan Pharma members - page 172
- Japan Pharma overview - page 173
- Japan Pharma sales outlook - page 174
- Company sales performance, 2005-11 - page 174
- Japan Pharma sales performance, 2005-11 - page 175
- Company growth rates, 2005-11 - page 176
- Company change in annual sales, 2005-11 - page 177
- Japan Pharma launch/expiry analysis - page 178
- Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 178
- Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 179
- Japan Pharma contribution from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 182
- Japan Pharma therapeutic area analysis - page 183
- Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 - page 183
- Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 - page 184
- Japan Pharma molecule type analysis - page 185
- Company by biologics dependency, 2005 - page 185
- Company by biologics dependency, 2011 - page 186
- Japan Pharma financial performance analysis - page 187
- Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues - page 187
- Company total revenues, 2002-06e - page 188
- Company operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e - page 189
- EBIT margin analysis, 2002-06e - page 191
- CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX - page 192
- References - page 192
- Exchange rates - page 192
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Big Pharma members - page 6
- Table 2: Mid Pharma members - page 7
- Table 3: Biotech members - page 7
- Table 4: Japan Pharma members - page 8
- Table 5: Therapy area abbreviations (used throughout report) - page 8
- Table 6: Summary of analysis - page 9
- Table 7: Big Pharma members - page 54
- Table 8: Big Pharma ethical sales forecasts ($m), 2005-11 - page 56
- Table 9: Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 70
- Table 10: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 72
- Table 11: Big Pharma therapy area sales, 2005-11 - page 79
- Table 12: Big Pharma therapy area launch/core/expiry analysis, 2005-11 - page 80
- Table 13: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2005 - page 89
- Table 14: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2011 - page 91
- Table 15: Big Pharma top five products, 2005 - page 93
- Table 16: Big Pharma top five products, 2011 - page 95
- Table 17: Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 96
- Table 18: Big Pharma therapy area launch/core/expiry analysis, 2005-11 - page 97
- Table 19: Mid Pharma members - page 117
- Table 20: Company contributions from launches and expiries ($m), 2005-11 - page 125
- Table 21: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 127
- Table 22: Biotech members - page 148
- Table 23: Company contributions from launches and expiries ($m), 2005-11 - page 156
- Table 24: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 158
- Table 25: Japan Pharma members - page 172
- Table 26: Company contributions from launches and expiries ($m), 2005-11 - page 178
- Table 27: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 180
- Table 28: Exchange rates, 2005 - page 192
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: PharmaVitae universe overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) - page 11
- Figure 2: Big Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) - page 12
- Figure 3: Mid Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) - page 14
- Figure 4: Biotech overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) - page 16
- Figure 5: Japan Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) - page 18
- Figure 6: PharmaVitae universe sales ($m), 2005-11 - page 20
- Figure 7: Therapy area x product attractiveness landscape - page 21
- Figure 8: Therapy area x product landscape: PFE, ROG and DNA - page 24
- Figure 9: Peer set therapeutic area focus, 2005 - page 26
- Figure 10: Peer set therapy area growth rates (% CAGR), 2005-11 - page 28
- Figure 11: Peer set launch/core/expiry analysis, total growth rate over the six years between 2005-11 (%) - page 30
- Figure 12: Peer set EBIT/total revenues, 2006e - page 32
- Figure 13: Strategic options for Big Pharma - page 33
- Figure 14: Big Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) - page 55
- Figure 15: Company sales performance ($m), 2005-11 - page 58
- Figure 16: Big Pharma sales performance, 2005-11 - page 60
- Figure 17: Company growth rates (% CAGR), 2005-11 - page 61
- Figure 18: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005-11 - page 62
- Figure 19: GlaxoSmithKline's launch portfolio, sales ($m), 2005-11 - page 65
- Figure 20: GlaxoSmithKline's expiry portfolio, sales ($m), 2005-11 - page 66
- Figure 21: GlaxoSmithKline's core portfolio, sales ($m), 2005-11 - page 67
- Figure 22: GlaxoSmithKline launch/core/expiry analysis, absolute growth ($m), 2005-11 - page 69
- Figure 23: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 73
- Figure 24: Big Pharma contribution from launches and expiries ($m), 2005-11 - page 76
- Figure 25: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 - page 81
- Figure 26: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 - page 82
- Figure 27: Company by therapy area sales, 2011 - page 83
- Figure 28: Big Pharma therapy area focus vs. growth rate - page 85
- Figure 29: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas (% of total ethical sales), 2005 - page 88
- Figure 30: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas (% of total ethical sales), 2011 - page 90
- Figure 31: Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products(% of total ethical sales), 2005 - page 92
- Figure 32: Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products (% of total ethical sales), 2011 - page 94
- Figure 33: Big Pharma launch/core/expiry by product type (% 2005 sales), 2005-11 - page 98
- Figure 34: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2005 - page 100
- Figure 35: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2011 - page 101
- Figure 36: Big Pharma growth rate by molecule type (% CAGR), 2005-11 - page 102
- Figure 37: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m), 2005 - page 104
- Figure 38: Company total revenues ($m), 2002-06e - page 106
- Figure 39: Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002-06e - page 108
- Figure 40: Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002-06e - page 109
- Figure 41: Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002-06e - page 111
- Figure 42: Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002-06e - page 112
- Figure 43: Big Pharma EBIT vs. total revenues ($m), 2006e - page 114
- Figure 44: Mid Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) - page 119
- Figure 45: Company sales performance ($m), 2005-11 - page 120
- Figure 46: Mid Pharma sales performance ($m), 2005-11 - page 121
- Figure 47: Company growth rates (% CAGR), 2005-11 - page 122
- Figure 48: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005-11 - page 124
- Figure 49: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 128
- Figure 50: Mid Pharma contribution from launches and expiries ($m), 2005-11 - page 130
- Figure 51: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 - page 132
- Figure 52: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 - page 133
- Figure 53: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2005 - page 134
- Figure 54: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2011 - page 135
- Figure 55: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m) - page 137
- Figure 56: Company total revenues ($m), 2002-06e - page 138
- Figure 57: Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002-06e - page 139
- Figure 58: Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002-06e - page 141
- Figure 59: Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002-06e - page 142
- Figure 60: Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002-06e - page 144
- Figure 61: Mid Pharma EBIT vs. total revenues ($m), 2006e - page 145
- Figure 62: Biotech overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) - page 149
- Figure 63: Company sales performance ($m), 2005-11 - page 150
- Figure 64: Biotech sales performance ($m), 2005-11 - page 151
- Figure 65: Company growth rates (CAGR %), 2005-11 - page 153
- Figure 66: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005-11 - page 155
- Figure 67: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 159
- Figure 68: Biotech contribution from launches and expiries ($m), 2005-11 - page 161
- Figure 69: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 - page 162
- Figure 70: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 - page 163
- Figure 71: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2005 - page 164
- Figure 72: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2011 - page 165
- Figure 73: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m) - page 166
- Figure 74: Company total revenues ($m), 2002-06e - page 167
- Figure 75: Company operating cost analysis (% total revenues), 2002-06e - page 169
- Figure 76: Company EBIT/total revenues, 2002-06e - page 170
- Figure 77: Japan Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) - page 173
- Figure 78: Company sales performance ($m), 2005-11 - page 174
- Figure 79: Japan Pharma sales performance ($m), 2005-11 - page 175
- Figure 80: Company growth rates (% CAGR), 2005-11 - page 176
- Figure 81: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005-11 - page 177
- Figure 82: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 - page 181
- Figure 83: Japan Pharma contribution from launches and expiries ($m), 2005-11 - page 182
- Figure 84: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 - page 183
- Figure 85: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 - page 184
- Figure 86: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2005 - page 185
- Figure 87: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2011 - page 186
- Figure 88: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m) - page 187
- Figure 89: Company total revenues ($m), 2002-06e - page 188
- Figure 90: Company operating cost analysis (% total revenues), 2002-06e - page 190
- Figure 91: Company EBIT vs. total revenues, 2002-06e - page 191
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