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Cervarix - a future blockbuster of 2007

The number of blockbusters continues to increase. The number is set to increase to 112 in 2007. Of the products set to receive FDA approval this year and generate blockbuster status on an annual basis, GSK's Cervarix, intended for the prevention of infection and lesions from the two cancer-causing types of HPVs holds great potential.

GSK will earn royalties of up to 10% or $200 million each year from Merck due to sales of the Cervarix cervical cancer vaccine, according to the legal settlement reached last year.

A joint-venture between Sanofi-Aventis and Merck believe they have first-mover advantage. Do they? Will GSK be able to fight this advantage in a new generation of blockbuster vaccines with annual sales likely to exceed $2bn each? The companies need to secure their share of this innovative and lucrative battle ground. Our new report highlights how they plan to do this and which products will be successful.

GSK believe that comparing Cervarix head-to-head with other vaccines, they can increase their market share. GSK are confident of this drug. We believe it will be a blockbuster.

2006 saw the launch of Gardasil the first vaccine against HPV (human papilloma virus) to protect against cervical cancer. Cervarix is due to be launched in 2007. Cervarix has, say GSK, the potential to reduce incidence of cervical cancer by 80%. With 500,000 new cases of cervical cancer reported each year, cervical cancer is the 3rd-leading cause of cancer death of woman worldwide. Governments will fund this drug if priced correctly. If this happens then blockbuster status is guaranteed.

The report gives an overview of the potential blockbusters set to hit the cancer vaccine market. In particular concentrating on the following aspects of cancer vaccines:

• Key players in blockbuster cancer vaccines
• What technologies can be utilised by cancer vaccines
• Revenue forecasts for potential blockbuster cancer vaccines
• Therapeutic cancer vaccines likely to achieve commercial success
• A clear SWOT analysis of cancer drugs
• Competitor analysis of likely blockbuster launches in cancer vaccines through to 2012

Why you must by this report:

The pharmaceutical industry has been seeking the next blockbuster drug, yet it appears as though these might not be as profligate as they have been in the past. However, the cancer vaccine markets hold promise. This report analyses the current situation in the market and assesses the potential of the products that are currently in the development pipeline. A comprehensive analysis of the cancer vaccine market from 2007-2012 outlines the potential of the market. Visiongain expects to see the development of at least two multi-billion dollar drugs.

Table of Contents

• 1. Executive Summary
• 2.  An Introduction to cancer Vaccines
  • 2.1. Cancer incidence is on the increase
    • 2.1.1. The most common cancers
    • 2.1.2. Worldwide variation in cancer incidence and mortality
  • 2.2. Cancer Biology
  • 2.3. Infection, viruses and cancer
    • 2.3.1. Human papilloma virus
    • 2.3.2. Hepatitis viruses
    • 2.3.3. Epstein-Barr virus
    • 2.3.4. Human T-cell leukaemia virus
    • 2.3.5. Helicobactor pylori
    • 2.3.6. HIV
  • 2.4. Prophylactic vaccines in the prevention of cancer
    • 2.4.1. Types of prophylactic vaccines
  • 2.5. The immune system and cancer
    • 2.5.1. Tumour associated antigens
  • 2.6. Therapeutic vaccines in the treatment of cancer
  • 2.7. Types of therapeutic cancer vaccines, personalised versus generalised cancer  vaccines
    • 2.7.1. Whole-cell vaccines
    • 2.7.2. Gene modified cancer vaccines
    • 2.7.3. Dendritic cell cancer vaccines
    • 2.7.4. Peptide cancer vaccines
    • 2.7.5. Bacterial vector vaccines
    • 2.7.6. Heat-shock protein vaccines
    • 2.7.7. Viral vector vaccines
    • 2.7.8. DNA vaccines
  • 2.8. Could therapeutic vaccines provide a universal cure for cancer?
    • 2.8.1. Cancer vaccines and telomerase
    • 2.8.2.   Cancer vaccines and metastasis
  • 2.9. Summary
• 3. Demand analysis and forecasts of the world prophylactic cancer vaccines market 2006-2011
  • 3.1. Key players in the prophylactic cancer vaccine market
    • 3.1.1. GSK dominates the HBV vaccine market
    • 3.1.2. Merck beat GSK in the race to launch the first cervical cancer vaccine
  • 3.2  The world market for prophylactic cancer vaccines
  • 3.3. The world market for hepatitis vaccines
    • 3.3.1. The American market for hepatitis B vaccines
    • 3.3.2. The European market for hepatitis B vaccines
    • 3.3.3. The developing world market for hepatitis B vaccines
    • 3.3.4. EngerixB is the biggest selling hepatitis B vaccine on the market
    • 3.3.5. Other HBV vaccines on the market
    • 3.3.6. Heplisav, predicted to be launched in 2009, will command a share of the market
  • 3.4. Forecast of world sales of HBV vaccines 2007-2012
    • 3.4.1. Engerix B will lose its hold on the market over the forecast period
    • 3.4.2. The HBV market in 2012
  • 3.5. The world market for HPV vaccines
    • 3.5.1. The American market for HPV vaccines
    • 3.5.2. The European market for HPV vaccines
    • 3.5.3. Other markets for HPV vaccines
  • 3.6. Forecast of world sales of HPV vaccines 2007-2012
    • 3.6.1. Early sales of Gardasil are promising
    • 3.6.2. Gardasil faces challenges from Cervarix and cultural barriers to obtain maximum potential sales of HPV vaccines
    • 3.6.3. Gardasil will dominate the HPV market over the forecast period 2007-2012
  • 3.7. HPV vaccines will emerge to dominate the prophylactic cancer vaccine market by 20012
  • 3.8. Summary
• 4. The world market for therapeutic cancer vaccines 
  • 4.1. Key players in therapeutic cancer vaccines
    • 4.1.1. AVAX Technologies and M-Vax
    • 4.1.2. Intracel is seeking worldwide market approval for OncoVAX
    • 4.1.3. Corixa and Melacine, a cautionary tale
    • 4.1.4.  Provenge could soon capitalise on the large prostate cancer market
    • 4.1.5.  TroVax is set to be the first allogeneic cancer vaccine to obtain a US license
    • 4.1.6. The predicted therapeutic cancer vaccine market in 2012
  • 4.2. The world market for cancer therapies
    • 4.2.1. Biological therapies have made a mark on the cancer therapy market
  • 4.3. Is there a place for cancer vaccines in the cancer therapy market?
    • 4.3.1. The potential market for Provenge
    • 4.3.2. The potential market for TroVax
    • 4.3.3. The potential market for M-Vax
    • 4.3.4. The potential market for OncoVax
  • 4.4. Summary
• 5. Issues affecting the cancer vaccines market
  • 5.1. Issues affecting the prophylactic cancer vaccine market
    • 5.1.1. HPV and HBV vaccines will continue to make up the prophylactic cancer vaccine market
    • 5.1.2. Public opinion and pricing may restrict the potential of prophylactic cancer vaccines
  • 5.2. Issues affecting the therapeutic cancer vaccine market
    • 5.2.1. Large potential markets for therapeutic cancer vaccines
    • 5.2.2. Can therapeutic cancer vaccines prove their worth?
    • 5.2.2. Can therapeutic cancer vaccines succeed- finding the right partner could be the key
    • 5.2.3. Should you get involved in this emerging market?
  • 5.3. Summary
• 6. The cancer vaccines pipeline
  • 6.1. The prophylactic cancer vaccines pipeline
  • 6.2. Overview of the therapeutic cancer vaccine pipeline
  • 6.3. Autologous therapeutic cancer vaccines in phase III trials
  • 6.4. Allogeneic therapeutic cancer vaccines in phase III trials
    • 6.4.1.   Could Pharmexa have the key to a generalised cancer vaccine?
      • 6.4.1.1.Geron challenges Pharmexa's patents on telomerase vaccines
    • 6.4.2.   GVAX
    • 6.4.3.   PANVAC-VF
    • 6.4.4.   Alloverctin7
    • 6.4.5. Stimuvax
  • 6.5 Therapeutic cancer vaccines in phase II
    • 6.5.1 Advaxis and live listeria vaccines
    • 6.5.2. Trangene
  • 6.6.  Big companies get a foothold by buying into the market or forming alliances
    • 6.6.1. GSK and The Ludgwig Institute for Cancer Research
    • 6.6.2. Merck KGaA and SurvacApS
    • 6.6.3 Merck & co buys into potential telomerase and DNA vaccine market
    • 6.6.4. Sanofi-Aventis and Agensys, Inc.
  • 6.7. The adjuvant market
  • 6.6. Summary
• 7. Conclusion

 

List of Tables

Table 2.1.  The most common cancers worldwide by cancer site

Table 2.2  Rates of common cancers in developed and developing nations

Table 2.3. Types of prophylactic cancer vaccines

Table 2.4. Types of autolotgous and allogeneic cancer vaccines being developed

Table 3.1. Prophylactic cancer vaccines currently on the market

Table 3.2.  World market for main HBV vaccines 2007-2012

Table 3.3. Sales forecast for main HBV vaccines 2007-2012

Table 3.4. World wide population of women aged 11-26

Table 3.5. The market for HPV vaccines 2007-2012

Table 3.6. Revenue forecasts for Gardasil and Cervarix 2007-2012

Table 4.1. Therapeutic cancer vaccines with licenses or predicted to obtain them within the forecast period

Table 4.2. Top selling cancer therapies in 2005

Table 5.1. A SWOT chart for the prophylactic cancer vaccines market

Table 5.2. A SWOT chart for the cancer vaccines market

Table 6.1.  Prophylactic cancer vaccines in development

Table 6.2. Therapeutic cancer vaccines in phase III trials

Table 6.3 Therapeutic cancer vaccines in phase II trials

Table 6.4. Pharmexa's therapeutic cancer vaccines in development

Table 6.5. Collaborations, licenses and acquisitions in therapeutic cancer vaccines

List of Figures

Figure 2.1. Incidence of and mortality of the most common cancers worldwide

Figure 2.2.  Incidence of and mortality from the most common male cancers

Figure 2.3. Incidence of and mortality from the most common female cancers

Figure 2.4. Rates of cancer incidence and mortality in developed nations

Figure 2.5. Rates of cancer incidence and mortality in developing nations

Figure 3.1. Company share of the prophylactic cancer vaccine market in 2005

Figure 3.2. The world market for hepatitis vaccines in 2005

Figure 3.3. 2005 market share of the main HBV vaccine market

Figure 3.4. Sales forecast for EngerixB 2007-2012

Figure 3.5. Sales forecast for Twinrix 2007-2012

Figure 3.6.  Sales forecast for Recombivax HB 2007-2012

Figure 3.7. Comparison of the sales forecast for main HBV vaccines 2007-2012

Figure 3.8.  Comparison of growth rates of the main HBV vaccines

Figure 3.9. The predicted market share of the main HBV vaccines in 2012

Figure 3.10. Estimated number of girls and women aged 11 and aged 11-26

Figure 3.11. Forecast for revenue of HPV vaccines 2007-2012

Figure 3.12. Market share of the HPV vaccine market 2007-2012

Figure 3.13. Predicted market share of the prophylactic cancer vaccines market in 2012

Figure 4.1. Predicted launch dates of cancer vaccines 2007-2012

Figure 4.2. Top selling cancer therapies in 2005

Figure 6.1.  Types of cancer vaccines in development

Figure 6.2. Cancers for which therapeutic vaccines are being developed

 

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